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Rebus Volandri: chi scenderà in campo contro la Serbia (e perché non è così scontato)
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Superata in rimonta l’Olanda ai quarti, l’Italia si appresta a tornare in campo nella sfida valida per le semifinali della Coppa Davis 2023. La selezione azzurra, come da pronostico, sarà opposta alla temibile Serbia trascinata dal numero uno al mondo Novak Djokovic.

Il confronto prenderà il via verso l’ora di pranzo (12:00) di domani, sabato 25 novembre, e si prospetta estremamente equilibrato. Lo sa bene Capitan Pippo Volandri, che, alla vigilia, è chiamato a fare i conti con delle scelte abbastanza complicate. Facciamo il punto della situazione.

Coppa Davis, Italia-Serbia: le ultime sulle formazioni

Italia Coppa Davis
Foto Twitter FITP

Partiamo dall’unica scelta che il selezionatore azzurro farà senza battere ciglio, ovvero quella relativa alla sfida tra i numeri uno delle due squadre: sarà ovviamente Jannik Sinner ad affrontare Djokovic nel secondo match di Italia e Serbia. E su questo non ci piove.

I problemi subentrano per quanto riguarda l’altro singolare, che vedrà opposti i numeri due, e l’incontro di doppio. Problemi direttamente legati, se vogliamo, perché la coppia sarà scelta anche in base alle condizioni che presenteranno Sinner e colui che calcherà il cemento indoor di Malaga nel confronto con Miomir Kecmanovic. Ma andiamo per gradi.

Chi affronterà Kecmanovic?

A nostro avviso, il maggiore indiziato ad affrontare Kecmanovic è Lorenzo Sonego. Per due motivi: se il torinese sta bene – e il fastidio alla schiena di Metz sembra solo un lontano ricordo – può batterlo con relativa facilità, a maggior ragione su tale tipologia di superficie. In secondo luogo, perché Lorenzo è il giocatore azzurro più dotato sotto l’aspetto del temperamento, e ciò potrebbe fare la differenza qualora la situazione dovesse diventare incandescente, come spesso avviene quando i serbi si trovano a difendere i propri colori. A Sonego diamo il 60% di probabilità che venga impiegato.

Buone chance anche per Matteo Arnaldi, reduce da una prestazione molto generosa, macchiata però da un po’ di inesperienza. Il ligure, come Sonego, ha tra le proprie qualità principali la grinta e la capacità di non arrendersi mai, entrambe fondamentali in competizioni del genere. Ad Arnaldi, tuttavia, diamo solo un 30% di possibilità per un motivo preciso, anzi due ma legati allo stesso fattore: dovesse perdere, Volandri si troverebbe in una situazione scomoda; idem Sinner, che avrebbe tutta la pressione su di lui nel match seguente contro Djokovic.

Venendo, infine, a Lorenzo Musetti, ripetiamo ciò che abbiamo scritto nella scorsa analisi: il toscano è proveniente da un periodo troppo negativo per essere lanciato come singolarista. Una vittoria lo aiuterebbe certo, ma cosa accadrebbe in caso di netta sconfitta? Già lo sapete. È molto più probabile che lo vedremo in doppio se eventualmente l’Italia riuscirà a portarsi sul 2-0. Gli attribuiamo in 10% giusto perché nel tennis nulla è sicuro.

I dubbi sul doppio

L’accoppiata Sinner-Sonego ha vinto e ed entusiasmato all’esordio, tanto che gli appassionati italiani sperano che Volandri possa riproporla contro la Serbia. Come abbiamo sottolineato poc’anzi, però, il capitano azzurro prenderà la sua decisione in base a svariati fattori.

Se l’incontro di doppio dovesse rivelarsi quello decisivo per l’approdo in finale, Volandri cercherà di puntare su Jannik e Lorenzo, a prescindere dallo sforzo a cui saranno sottoposti nei match di singolare. Va da sé che se il torinese non verrà impiegato contro Kecmanovic, giocherà sicuramente in caso di doppio decisivo. L’altro scenario, invece, vede Simone Bolelli in leggero vantaggio su Arnaldi e Musetti.

Come seguire l’Italia alle Finals di Coppa Davis in TV e streaming

Le partite dell’Italia di Davis sono trasmesse in chiaro sulla RAI (Rai 2 o Rai Sport) e previo abbonamento su Sky Sport Uno e Sky Sport Tennis. Anche Supertennis (il canale ufficiale della FITP) manderà in onda i match, ma in differita. Per quanto lo streaming, le sfide degli azzurri saranno visibili su RaiPlay, SkyGo, NOW e su SuperTennix.

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